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Hillary's Math Problem

For those of us paying attention, and with a minimal grasp of grade school mathematics, things are increasingly bleak for Hillary.

Here is the delegate count....
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/democratic_delegate_count .html

- Obama is up by 160 pledged delegates
- When the super delegates are factored in, he is still up by 124 total delegates

Notice also:

  • Obama WON Texas
  • If you add up Hillary's big win a few weeks ago on March 4, she really only "netted" 5 delegates (add the the difference is delegate in Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island, and Vermont together = Hillary + 5)
  • Obama netted 5 delegates this week in Mississippi...and netted 2 more in Wyoming. So March 4th through Mississippi...Obama has increased his lead by 2 delegatese.
So much for the "big win" in Ohio and Texas and Rhoded Island for Hillary....she actually lost Texas and lost ground since.

Additionally, Obama picked up 4 more delegates this week in IL http://electioninspection.wordpress.com/ 2008/03/13/obama-nets-four-delegates-in- illinois/

So, including her "big wins" in Ohio and Texas, Hillary has lost 6 delegates since March 4

But Pennsylvania will change everything?

  • Hillary will win PA big
  • And only net 9 delegates
http://electioninspection.wordpress.com/ 2008/03/12/pennsylvania-initial-cd-deleg ate-projections/

Which will be offset by North Carolina.....
http://electioninspection.wordpress.com/ 2008/03/13/nc-primary-initial-cd-delegat e-allocation/
Where Obama will get those 9 delegates back....

There are no winner-take-all primaries for the Democrats, as we know. Obama will be very competitive in all or most of the remaining contests. She can't catch him. She can only tarnish him.

Sadly, at least she is succeeding at that.

ObamaNation takes Texas

As is clealy evident by the new polling out this morning, Obama is opening a sizable lead in Texas and closing in in Ohio. Without big HRC wins in both states, the comeback kid cannot comeback. It's now a math problem. And a foregone conclusion.

See the Texas trend here:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/tx/texas_democratic_prima ry-312.html

And the terrible HRC news here:
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/i dUSN2964115720080229?feedType=RSS&fe edName=topNews&rpc=22&sp=true

The only question remaining is whether she will announce the suspension of her campaign Tuesday night or Wednesday afternoon.

Numbers are numbers, folks....

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